Transmission model

GEThttps://api.ai4mproject.com/v1/transmission/modelScope: risk_scores

Returns a compartmental transmission model fitted to monthly reported malaria cases in Kwara, Nasarawa and Zamfara, the three states with public monthly data.

Caution

This is research output, not an operational forecast. It covers three states at state level. Read limits in the response and Transmission dynamics before using it.

Parameters

None.

Request

curl

curl "https://api.ai4mproject.com/v1/transmission/model" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $AI4M_API_KEY"

Python

model = client.get_transmission_model()
for state in model["states"]:
    print(state["state"], state["months_with_infection_growing"])

TypeScript

const model = await client.getTransmissionModel();
for (const state of model.states) {
  console.log(state.state, state.months_with_infection_growing);
}

Go

model, err := client.TransmissionModel(ctx)
if err != nil {
  log.Fatal(err)
}
fmt.Println(model["status"], model["limits"])

Response

Field	Type	Description
status	string	Always research
assumed	object	The two durations the model assumes, in months: how long an infection stays infectious and how long immunity lasts
states[].state_code, state	string	The state
states[].fit_correlation	number	Correlation of the fitted model with reported cases, 2015 to 2023
states[].months_with_infection_growing	integer[]	Months in which each infection leads to more than one new infection
states[].reproduction_number_by_month	number[]	New infections per infection, for January to December. Above 1, infection is growing
states[].share_of_transmission_year_round	number	Share of transmission that does not depend on the season, from 0 to 1
states[].series[]	array	Monthly reported and modelled confirmed cases per 1,000 people, by period
projection_test	object	Mean error, in cases per 1,000, projecting a year ahead, against two simple methods. held_back is a year scored once, after the design was fixed
limits	string[]	What the model does not show

200 OK

{
  "status": "research",
  "assumed": {
    "infectious_months": 2,
    "immune_months": 12
  },
  "states": [
    {
      "state_code": "KW",
      "state": "Kwara",
      "fit_correlation": 0.867,
      "months_with_infection_growing": [
        4,
        5,
        6,
        7,
        8,
        9
      ],
      "reproduction_number_by_month": [
        0.931,
        0.943,
        0.974,
        1.029,
        1.091,
        1.133,
        1.092,
        1.042,
        1.006,
        0.943,
        0.897,
        0.912
      ],
      "share_of_transmission_year_round": 0.78,
      "series": [
        {
          "period": "2015-01",
          "reported": 0.01,
          "modelled": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period": "2015-02",
          "reported": 0.54,
          "modelled": 0.29
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "projection_test": {
    "development_years": [
      2021,
      2022,
      2023
    ],
    "development": {
      "months": 108,
      "mean_absolute_error": {
        "model": 4.02,
        "same_month_last_year": 4.66,
        "same_month_last_three_years": 3.95
      },
      "seasonal_shape_correlation": 0.76
    },
    "held_back_year": 2024,
    "held_back": {
      "months": 36,
      "mean_absolute_error": {
        "model": 4.94,
        "same_month_last_year": 6.25,
        "same_month_last_three_years": 4.74
      },
      "seasonal_shape_correlation": 0.81
    }
  },
  "limits": [
    "Fitted to state totals in three states; it says nothing about other states or about LGAs.",
    "Reported cases rise with testing and reporting as well as with infection.",
    "It assumes how long an infection and immunity last; no mosquito data is used.",
    "A year ahead it is level with a three-year seasonal average, not better."
  ]
}

The example shows one of the three states and the first two months of its series.

Errors

Code	Status	When
SCOPE_REQUIRED	403	The key does not include the scope this endpoint needs
TRANSMISSION_DATA_UNAVAILABLE	503	The transmission data has not been loaded on the server

Any request can also return 401 for a bad key and 429 when a limit is reached. See Errors.